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================================================================== Published by INEWS. Freely distributable if unaltered and complete. See end of document for info on free E-mail trial of INEWS. INTERNATIONAL NEWS E-WIRE SERVICE All rights reserved. For information on receiving a free trial subscription to INEWS World News Daily via E-mail send E-mail to INEWS@AOL.COM ================================================================== '96 ELECTION SNAPSHOT VOL.1 #2 SUBSCRIPTION INFO/GENERAL INFO - INEWS@AOL.COM TO REACH EDITOR ---------------- INEWSEDIT@AOL.COM CONTENTS: NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY UPDATE CAMPAIGN '96: PRIMARIES DEMOCRAT WYDEN WINS OREGON SENATE RACE CAMPAIGN '96: IOWA CAUCUS CAMPAIGN '96: OPINION POLLS CAMPAIGN '96: FEBRUARY START PUBLIC OPINION POLL ON THE FIRST LADY PUBLIC OPINION POLLS ALASKA STRAW POLL NATIONAL ISSUES CONVENTION CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING OREGON: FIRST VOTE-BY-MAIL CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION PROPOSED PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE DATES ANNOUNCED RETIRING MEMBER OF CONGRESS DEMOCRATIC CALENDAR SECRET BALLOT INTRODUCED TO THE UNITED STATES 1888 FREE OFFER FROM PUBLISHER ========================= --------------- NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY UPDATE JIM MALONE MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE With less than three weeks to go before the important New Hampshire presidential primary, the nine Republican candidates are making a furious last-minute push for support. The situation is said to be growing less predictable with each passing day. With chants of Lamar in '96 urging him on, former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander sets off for another campaign appearance in snowy, cold New Hampshire. It is an American ritual. Every four years the voters of New Hampshire play a pivotal role in deciding who will be the next president. This year, much of the talk is of newcomer Steve Forbes and his meteoric rise in the polls against the man once considered the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nomination, Senator Bob Dole. But as Mr. Forbes goes up in the polls, his opponents are eager to drag him back to earth. Lamar Alexander and some of the other candidates are accusing Steve Forbes of using his vast personal fortune to try and buy a win in the New Hampshire primary. "Mr. Forbes is totally unprepared to be the president of the United States. I think everyone knows that who stops and thinks about it. We do not reach down in a grab bag and pick up somebody just because they inherited 400-million dollars, can hire a couple of Jesse Helms admakers (campaign consultants who made controversial TV ads for Senator Jesse Helms some years ago) and flood the New Hampshire primary with television ads." In fact, the television ads are everywhere. New Hampshire radio and television stations are saturated day and night. Still, many voters say they have not yet made up their minds. Julie Brown is a New Hampshire state legislator who describes herself as a moderate Republican. She believes too many of the Republican candidates come across as mean. And she likes Steve Forbes because he is one of the few offering a positive message "Because he is different. He is interesting and he talks to the people. When he is there communicating, he is looking you in the eye and he smiles. And I think the greatest thing is that he offers hope to the people who have been downtrodden for many years. And now he is offering hope." Senator Dole was up here this week as well, trying to breathe new life into his faltering presidential campaign. New Hampshire has never been kind to Bob Dole's presidential aspirations. He was buried well back in the pack in the 1980 race against Ronald Reagan and suffered a bitter defeat at the hands of George Bush in 1988. Now, Republicans like Julie Brown and others are warning Bob Dole to brace himself for yet another New Hampshire disappointment on February 20th when the voters have their say. --------------- --------------- CAMPAIGN '96: PRIMARIES TED LANDPHAIR WASHINGTON In American politics, primary elections are the equivalent of "survival of the fittest." More than three-fourths of Republican and Democratic state organizations select delegates to their national presidential nominating conventions by holding statewide party elections called "primaries." Once the presidential candidates are nominated at the Republican and Democratic conventions this summer, campaigning will become an aloof battle of media advertisements, punctuated by occasional news conferences, airport speeches, and televised debates. But as Norman Ornstein [orn-steen], a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, points out, primary elections leading up to the conventions are a vestige of old-style personal politics. This means candidates must endure an endless procession of social gatherings, town meetings, debates, and handshaking tours through even the smallest of American towns: "Instead of having a campaign that's just run on television and manipulated through commercials for a group of people selecting those [candidates] they don't know at all, you have to have retail campaigning. These candidates go to small states. They meet with small groups. And they have to show that they can actually interact with people." Barbara Cochran, the executive producer of political broadcasts at CBS news, says there's an old joke in the little state of New Hampshire, which clings to its tradition of holding the first primary every presidential election year. The story has it that a voter won't make a selection until he's personally met a candidate three times: "This is probably apocryphal [alts: Fictitious, a made-up story], but it gives you a sense of how up close and personal the campaigning can get. And that's something that doesn't happen in November, when campaigning is done from airport to airport and by television advertising." More and more states are moving from the older caucus system of choosing party nominees to the more open primary system. Today, well over four-fifths of delegates to the party conventions are selected by voters in the primaries, not by party leaders or activists. Whereas in states that still hold caucuses, citizens disclose their preferences for president in a series of meetings, primary-election voters cast their ballots in secret, often in the same polling places where they'll vote in the general election on November 5th. The ballots list candidates' names, and those candidates work hard to get out the vote. But what citizens are actually voting for are slates of delegates who are pledged to support the candidates of their choice. As often happens, an incumbent president has decided to run again this year, and President Clinton faces almost no opposition within his party. So it is the party out of the White House, the Republicans, for which this year's primary elections are a fierce battleground among well-known leaders and obscure newcomers. Linda Jamison, who's the Capitol Hill and White House liaison for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the rules of combat are simple. Win the first primary in New Hampshire on February 20th, and the first caucus in Iowa, or at least finish a strong second. Or else: "This is a testing ground for candidates to prove that they have the organization, that they're popular, that they can raise money in the future. Some candidates drop out after these two, and some move ahead and are able to build a lot of momentum going into the next races, especially in March. That's really the big month for primaries." Even though tiny New Hampshire selects only about two percent of each party's presidential delegates, the winner in that rocky New England state's primary gains instant credibility. Since 1952, for instance, every Republican who has eventually won the presidency first captured the New Hampshire primary. Stragglers in new hampshire are all but out of the presidential race, because they lose financial backing and are treated as losers by the news media. The New Hampshire contest is quickly followed by a numbing barrage of primary elections in March, including a series in southern states that's come to be called "Super Tuesday." Several states have moved their primary elections earlier and earlier to get as close to the front of the line behind New Hampshire as possible. Georgetown University professor Stephen Wayne says this has resulted in what's called a "front-loading" of the primary process: "Today about 80 percent of the Republican delegates will be selected in a 44-day period from February 20th, 1996 [the date of the New Hampshire primary] to March 26th, 1996 [when Californians vote in their primaries]." States that hold primaries use a variety of systems. Most allocate convention delegates according to the percentage of the vote won by the various candidates. If candidate a gets 40 percent in the primary, he or she gets 40 percent of the delegates, and so forth. Other primaries are "winner-take-all." A few southern states require a runoff election between the top two finishers if no candidate gets a majority of votes in the first primary. More than a dozen states hold what are called "open primaries," in which registered voters of any party, and even independents, may vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries, but not both. In such states this year, for example, many Democratic voters, lacking a race in their primary, are expected to cast ballots in the Republican race. And independents are keenly courted by candidates as possibly the deciding "swing votes" in these open primaries. Some states, like Louisiana, use a complex combination of caucuses and primaries to choose their delegates to the national conventions. And the Democrats reserve about 20 percent of the seats at their convention for what are called "superdelegates", including members of Congress and other high-ranking party officials. If recent history is an accurate guide, by the end of March, one Republican candidate will have locked up enough convention delegates to be assured of getting his party's nomination to oppose President Clinton. There's been some talk of expanding the primary-election process, while at the same time lessening the influence of primaries in little states like new hampshire, by someday replacing the state primaries with a single, national primary election. But tradition dies hard, and states that become the center of the American political universe for a week or so every four years are in no hurry to see the system change. --------------- --------------- DEMOCRAT WYDEN WINS OREGON SENATE RACE JERRY MCKINNEY WASHINGTON A Democrat has been elected to the U.S. Senate in the northwestern U.S. state of Oregon in what party officials are calling a victory for their national agenda. Congressman Ron Wyden defeated a conservative Republican by a narrow margin. The special election was held to fill the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the resignation of Republican Robert Packwood. Mr. Packwood resigned last year after being accused of sexual misconduct. The choice was between Democratic Congressman Ron Wyden and Gordon Smith, a conservative Republican businessman who serves as president of the Oregon state senate. The margin of victory was slim, just one-percent of the total vote. But Democrats say Ron Wyden's election to the U.S. Senate is a signal voters favor the agenda of the Democratic Party. Mr. Wyden says the results indicate the voters in Oregon oppose the actions of the Republican-controlled Congress: "This was a race about Oregon values. But I do think it has national implications. For example, we have worked on a bipartisan basis for our clean air and clean water laws. This Congress is trying to roll them back and Oregonians don't like it." The victorious candidate says the results mean people support his party's views on abortion, the environment, and government spending. Mr. Wyden will become the first Democrat to represent Oregon in the U.S. Senate in 30-years. The new senator will serve the nearly three-years remaining in the term of Mr. Packwood. When he officially joins the senate his party will hold 47 of the 100 seats in that body. Republicans control the other 53. Mr. Wyden was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1980 and has won re-election every two-years since. The Oregon election was the first to allow voters to cast their ballots by mail. The new system was developed in an effort to increase voter participation. --------------- --------------- CAMPAIGN '96: IOWA CAUCUS TED LANDPHAIR WASHINGTON The process of choosing the next U.S. president technically begins in three Republican caucuses in Alaska, Hawaii, and Louisiana. But the first critical test of candidates takes place on February 12th in the snows of the little Midwest state of Iowa. Most other states use primary elections to choose their presidential preferences, but Iowa is one of a handful of states that cling stubbornly to the older caucus system of selecting delegates to the national convention, where the final candidates will officially be named. Holding caucuses, or meetings of active members within the nation's political parties, to choose presidential nominees is the oldest system in the American democracy. But there's a big difference between the caucuses that sent Thomas Jefferson and other early presidents on the road to the White House, and the caucuses in Iowa and a few other states that will help select the nation's next president in 1996. Originally caucuses were open only to members of congress. These powerful men from each political party would meet and pick their candidate for president, usually one of their own or another friend within the party elite. But this caucus system fell out of favor because decisions made in these so-called "smoke-filled rooms" left out the parties' rank-and-file faithful. This year in each of the dozen or so states that still hold caucuses, any registered party member may go to one of several meeting halls and participate in the first stage of the process of choosing that state's preferred presidential nominee. In some states, you can even show up that very night and register as a Republican or Democrat. Starting in 1972, the small Midwest farm state of Iowa grabbed the media limelight by scheduling its caucuses first, even before the traditional opening primary election in New Hampshire. Both George McGovern that year, and then Jimmy carter in 1976, emerged from relative obscurity to win the Iowa Democratic caucus and gather momentum that carried them all the way to their parties' presidential nominations. Since then, Iowa has held stoutly to the tradition of kicking off the presidential campaign season. Television political commentator Bob Beckel ran Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign. He says candidates have had no choice but to campaign vigorously in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary: "Unless they do well in those two states, the most important thing you need at that point, which is money, will dry up very quickly. And the cameras will turn off. And that's the greatest fear. And that's why the emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire is so important, because if you don't get through that in reasonably good shape, you might as well just go home and watch." Envious of the dollars spent in Iowa by candidates, and by the horde of reporters covering them, three other Republican state organizations, in Louisiana, Hawaii, and Alaska, attempted to upstage Iowa this year by scheduling their caucuses even earlier. But the strategy has had little effect. Alaska and Hawaii are too small and far away for most candidates to campaign in earnest, and only three or four of the Republican candidates have spent much time or money in Louisiana. The others have signed pledges to stay loyal to Iowa, where the media have set up most of their coverage. Democrats in Alaska, Hawaii, and Louisiana hold their caucuses or primaries long after the Iowa caucus. So do Republican and democratic organizations in other caucus states. So these caucuses will draw scant national attention because they'll be mixed in with better-known primaries in bigger states. University of iowa political science professor Peverill Squire says the February 12th Iowa caucuses are precinct, or neighborhood, meetings that are part of a much longer process: "People representing the candidates, or the candidates [themselves], will try to say why they're supporting them and try to persuade their neighbors. And in the Republican case, there will in essence be a private ballot then. They'll cast their own vote. And those votes will be totalled. The Democrats do it a little differently. You vote publicly, and if your candidate does not get enough votes, then you have a chance to switch and support somebody else. So there, there's a lot of negotiating going on." The votes from each precinct will be tallied and counted in the state capital of Des Moines [duh-moyne]. Because the president has no democratic opposition, this year the vote at the Democrats' caucus will be just a formality. They will meet, though, to go through the motions of the vote and to discuss other party matters. After the Republican precinct tally, candidate a will be declared the winner, candidate B second, and so forth, and proportionally according to their percentages of the caucus vote, supporters of those candidates will be chosen to go to the next level, representing the state's five congressional districts. These men and women, in turn, will elect delegates to a state party caucus. And finally, that caucus will choose the 25 Republican delegates who will go to the party convention in San Diego, California, in August. Other caucus states follow basically the same system. The University of Iowa's Peverill Squire says supporters of caucuses over the more popular primary-election system believe that they bring out more committed public citizens, willing to sit with their neighbors for three or more hours defending their favorite candidates. The Iowa caucuses attract those candidates in person, because the state is such a manageable size: "The candidates actively court activists who can turn out more people on caucus night. So it's an opportunity to meet people in a way that in California you would probably never have the chance, because [in California and other big states], most of the campaign is TV and radio." Critics say both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary eight days later have too much influence on the American political process. Both states are tiny, sparsely populated, and overwhelmingly white. Thus, say their detractors, they come nowhere near representing the ethnic diversity of much of the rest of the country. The winner of the Iowa caucus is instantly a bona fide presidential contender. If the favorite in the polls going into Iowa wins handily as expected, he or she can drive out several competitors, and get a big boost heading into the New Hampshire primary. --------------- --------------- CAMPAIGN '96: OPINION POLLS MAXIM KNIAZKOV WASHINGTON It's a busy time again for America's polling firms as the election campaigns move into high gear. Presidential contenders and scores of politicians seeking congressional and local offices are trying to gauge the public mood and mold their campaigns accordingly. Experts say polls are increasingly in demand even between elections as office holders try to weigh their decisions on the popularity scale. With the on-going budget dispute between Democrats and Republicans emerging as perhaps the defining battle of the 1996 election campaign, politicians have pollsters working overtime. Reports say opinion surveys were taken daily during the two occasions when the federal government shutdown late last year. Congress and the White House each tried to figure out who had the most public support. Ohio State University political science professor Herbert Asher says that after negative poll results Congressional Republicans switched course to allow the government to reopen: "Certainly, throughout this budget battle, people have been fighting poll numbers. At times, the Republicans have expressed frustration about how the pollsters ask the questions, the actual wording. At other times, the Democrats. But certainly the polls have been used as a way of determining who is gaining the advantage." Analysts say this episode underscores the growing role of opinion polls in American politics as both incumbents and contenders try to hone and target their messages. U.S. News and World Report magazine says the Democratic National Committee, for example, spent a hefty four-and-one-half million dollars on polls from 1993 through mid-1995, enough to commission up to 150 surveys. By contrast, Democrat John Kennedy, during all of his presidency in the early 1960's, ordered only 16 polls. Republican pollster Bill Dalbec says the proliferation of opinion polls reflects both modern technology advances and a desire by politicians to spend their campaign funds wisely: "On the political avenue, certainly, the larger the level of the campaign, the more important it is to have accurate data so that you can help in planning your campaign. Presidential campaigns will spend, you know, a considerable amount of money on surveys to help them plan their resources because again, when you are talking about spending millions of dollars on television [advertisements], it only makes sense to know where you are going to get the greatest bang for your buck [return]." Bill Dalbec says only a fraction of surveys conducted by pollsters are publicized in the press. Remaining outside the spotlight is an intense sounding out of various communities on scores of issues, from building a dump site in New Jersey to cattle grazing rights in Montana, all to help interested politicians map out their strategies. Such thorough screening of the electorate has many Americans worried, primarily about candidates pandering to voters instead of standing their ground and defending what they believe is good for the country. But Bill Dalbec believes these worries are overblown. If anything, he says, polling helps candidates balance their agenda and serves voters the right mix of popular measures and bitter medicine: "What we are doing in our work is not telling people what position they should take on the balanced budget amendment, for example. But if finding out that the majority of people in their district oppose the balanced budget amendment, what are some other issues that you can talk to them about that may attract them into your campaign?" This line of reasoning, however, does not sound convincing enough to conservative Republicans like Pat Buchanan and Alan Keyes, who say they don't care about polls and would rather do what they feel is right. But recent polls indicate these two candidates are not likely to make it very far this year. --------------- --------------- CAMPAIGN '96: FEBRUARY START BARBARA SCHOETZAU NEW YORK U.S. presidential campaigns seem to start earlier and earlier. Some observers think the 1996 quest for the White House began the day the 1992 race ended. But to most Americans, the month of February is the traditional start of the U.S. presidential campaign. In February, the northeastern state of New Hampshire and the Midwestern state of Iowa hold the first contests to choose among the candidates running for the presidential nominations of the two major American political parties, the Democrats and the Republicans. In Iowa, party activists will pick candidates in a series of private meetings around the state known as caucuses. New Hampshire holds what is known as a primary election in which registered party members go to the polls to vote for a candidate. Bill Schneider, senior fellow in politics at the American Enterprise Institute, political analyst for CNN and syndicated columnist for the "Los Angeles Times," says there is a big difference between the two events: "A caucus takes up a whole evening. An election you simply show up and cast a ballot and leave. But also a caucus is a public vote, whereas a primary, like an election, is based on a secret ballot. The result is that a caucus gets a much smaller proportion of registered Republicans, in this case, to turn out, and they tend to be disproportionately passionate, committed supporters of a particular candidate or people who belong to an organization. Since it is a secret ballot in a primary and it is easier and takes less time, a primary gets a broader cross-section of voters. For that reason, the New Hampshire primary has always been a much better indicator of the way rank-and-file Republicans feel than the Iowa caucuses." Neither state is particularly representative of the American population as a whole. Both are rural states with sparse and relatively homogeneous populations. Yet, because of their "first-in-the-nation" status, Iowa and New Hampshire attract nationwide attention every four years. But are the votes in either state a bellweather of what's ahead? According to Bill Schneider, the New Hampshire primary has often predicted the eventual presidential nominees, especially among Republicans: "In the last six New Hampshire primaries, the winner has always gone on to win the nomination. (George) Bush in 1988 and '92, (ronald) Reagan in 1980 and '84. They picked (Gerald) Ford over Reagan in 1976; (Richard) Nixon in 1972. New Hampshire has a superb record of picking the winner of the nomination. Not quite as good on the democratic side because the Democratic primaries have been a little erratic. Iowa, the record is not nearly as good." Every primary season contains its share of surprises. Often, candidates viewed by analysts as strong contenders are found to be less appealing to voters. And some times a "dark horse", or relatively unknown candidate, unexpectedly captures the attention of voters and emerges from the pack. On the Democratic side this year, the big surprise so far is the fact that President Bill Clinton remains unchallenged: "The fact that he does not have a challenge is a surprise, the first time on over 50 years a Democratic president has not been challenged. The question is: What does that mean? Does that mean he is strong or does that mean he is so weak it is not worth bothering with? I think it means that he is strong. I think it means everyone realized very quickly there is no future in challenging Bill Clinton in the Democratic Party. It would anger Democrats. You would not get the nomination. No challenger to an incumbent president in a presidential race has ever gotten the nomination away from him." On the Republican side, the big surprise has been the unexpected strength of multimillionaire businessman Steve Forbes, who is running second in New Hampshire and Iowa to Senator Robert Dole of Kansas, the Senate majority leader who, until recently, has been 20 to 30 percentage points ahead of all his Republican rivals. The relatively unknown businessman is spending vast sums of his personal fortune on a television advertising campaign that appears to be succeeding. Public opinion polls show that despite his late entry into the race, Mr. Forbes is beating two U.S. senators, Phil Gramm of Texas and Richard Lugar of Indiana, former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, and television commentator Pat Buchanan. In the state of Arizona, which holds its primary a week after New Hampshire, Steve Forbes is in first place, even though he has no political experience. According to Schneider: "He is a political outsider, a non-politician. Never been elected to anything. Very wealthy; inherited most of his money from his family. Nevertheless, he is mounting a very credible challenge as an anti-Washington outsider." Bill schneider notes that Mr. Forbes is riding the crest an an anti-Washington wave, calling for a "flat tax", one tax rate for most Americans that would eliminate most deductions. To many Americans, the complicated U.S. tax code, which is rift with loopholes that primarily benefit the wealthy, is a symbol of everything that is wrong with the government. But whether Mr. Forbes' proposal can stand up to scrutiny remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Senator Gramm is expecting a boost to his prospects as southern voters go to the polls in a series of primaries from the end of February through the middle of March. --------------- --------------- PUBLIC OPINION POLL ON THE FIRST LADY VICTOR BEATTIE WASHINGTON A new national poll finds that half the public does not believe first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton is telling the truth about her involvement in the Whitewater affair. However, as The first lady's standing in public opinion does not seem to be hurting her husband's re-election prospects. The "Newsweek" magazine poll finding is up sharply from a similar poll taken about Mrs. Clinton in April, 1994. The poll was released one day after Mrs. Clinton was subpoenaed to testify under oath Friday before a federal grand jury in Washington looking into the Clinton's past financial dealings. The independent Whitewater prosecutor wants to know how billing documents from Mrs. Clinton's former law firm, sought for two years, mysteriously appeared recently at the White House. Mrs Clinton is also part of a congressional probe into the firing of the staff of the White House travel office. The Clintons have steadfastly denied any wrongdoing in either case. Senior "Newsweek" editor David Alpern says despite the public's view of Mrs. Clinton, it apparently has not hurt Mr. Clinton's chances of re-election: "Sixty-six percent say they are not less likely to vote for (Mr.) Clinton because of Hillary, Whitewater, travelgate. And, more importantly, 77-percent of Democrats say they are not less likely to vote for Bill Clinton. And so, I guess, that explains why he continues to lead in the matchups against the Republicans." In the poll, Mr. Clinton still beats Republican presidential front-runner Senator Bob Dole by 52 to 49 percent and surprising runner-up Steve Forbes 49 to 42 percent. The Newsweek poll confirmed Mr. Dole has the most support among all challengers for the Republican party nomination. However, Mr. Alpern says Mr. Dole, at age 72, remains vulnerable: "Forty-one percent say he is too much of an insider. Almost as many, 37-percent, say he's too old to serve effectively as president. They're not majorities but it's a significant number and it's something (Mr.) Dole has to worry about." The poll finds Mr. Dole's support down from a November survey and Mr. Forbes, editor of the New York-based business-magazine that bears his name, has more than tripled his support in the last two months. --------------- --------------- PUBLIC OPINION POLLS From public opinion pollsters tracking the Republican presidential race in New Hampshire -- conflicting views. According to The Boston Globe and WBZ-TV, their latest public opinion survey of Republican and independent voters in New Hampshire showed millionaire publisher Steve Forbes nine points ahead of Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, the acknowledged front runner in the February 20 primary. Earlier, a Pew Research Center survey of likely voters showed Forbes pulling ahead of Dole slightly, while another similar survey, by the American Research Group, had Dole with a two-to-one lead over Forbes. All three polls had television commentator Pat Buchanan in third place, followed by former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander and Texas Senator Phil Gramm. Forbes is generating the most publicity in New Hampshire and in Iowa, where the caucuses take place February 12, because of his controversial proposal for a 17-percent "flat tax" to replace America's complex income tax system, and his spending of several million dollars of his own money for television ads highly critical of Dole. In retaliation, Dole ads focus on Forbes' political inexperience. A first place finish for Dole in Iowa, neighboring his home state of Kansas, would not be considered good enough unless it is decisive. In the early caucuses and primaries, analysts often view a strong second place finisher as the real "winner," carrying momentum on to the next contest. --------------- --------------- ALASKA STRAW POLL A non-binding straw poll, or unofficial tally of voters considering Republican presidential contenders, that was held in Alaska over a three-day period was "another indication that nothing's really locked up at this point," according to National Public Radio. Conservative commentator Buchanan, who edged businessman Forbes 33-31 percent in the balloting, said the victory instilled "energy, fire and enthusiasm in our organizations all across the country." Even though the Alaska "beauty contest" was a tiny fraction of the national vote, it drew media attention. Despite having the support of Alaska's governor and two senators, Dole came in a distant third. And now, according to Anchorage radio commentator Fritz Pettyjohn, "the potential for a wide-open battle for the nomination remains alive." --------------- --------------- NATIONAL ISSUES CONVENTION By David Pitts Polls are only a snapshot of what voters think at any one time and can easily change for a myriad of reasons. Tangible proof of this was provided at the National Issues Convention, an experiment in democracy that took place in Austin, Texas in mid-January. All told, 459 people from throughout the United States were chosen at random to participate. A public opinion poll was taken to assess their viewpoints. Then, the participants met in small groups to talk about the nation's ills. A second identical survey was then taken to determine whether their views had changed. The result, organizers of America's first "deliberative poll" say, showed that public opinion changes significantly when people have a chance to talk with each other, read issue pamphlets and question both candidates and experts. Among the Republican presidential candidates who spoke to the convention were Texas Senator Phil Gramm, Indiana Senator Richard Lugar and businessman Steve Forbes. Also speaking was Vice President Gore, who is expected to remain on the Democratic ticket with President Clinton although they have not yet formally declared their reelection bid. "This experiment provided a window on America," said University of Texas professor James Fishkin, who created and organized the issues convention. "The political process would benefit more from serious dialogue with voters and less misleading advertising and slick sound bites." Fishkin's experiment found that people changed their minds on a wide variety of issues -- from the flat tax to such foreign policy matters as how much the United States should cooperate with other nations militarily. Of particular importance to a foreign audience is the change that occurred in the participants' views on foreign aid. Conventional polls consistently indicate Americans over-estimate the percentage of the budget that is expended on foreign aid. When the realities of foreign aid were discussed at the convention, nearly 21 percent concluded it should not be cut, up from nine percent in the initial poll. With results like this, and major attention from the U.S. news media, it's very possible that more "deliberative polls" will be held in the future. --------------- --------------- CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING By Elena Burt One way to follow a presidential campaign in the United States is to pay close attention to the television advertising, says political observer Jerry Hagstrom, because the candidates' ads indicate their supply of funds and standing in a race, plus their positions on issues that are of importance to the voters. Hagstrom, an editor at the National Journal, noted at a recent briefing at the U.S. Information Agency's Foreign Press Center that experience and organization skill, or a lack thereof, become evident in the style, format and content of the ads. He said there are four types of political ads: -- biographical, which are used first to acquaint the public with a candidate; often they include graphics and patriotic music. -- issues, which take a specific stand and generally focus on a particular geographic region. -- attack, which are considered "negative," and often used to criticize opponents who are considered to be making progress in a campaign. -- uplifting, which attempt to end the advertising series with a "feel good," inspirational message. Hagstrom pointed out that candidates run the bulk of their television ads in a last minute blitz before the major primaries and caucuses in an effort to win over the undecided voters. --------------- --------------- OREGON: FIRST VOTE-BY-MAIL CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION The Republican majority in the U.S. Senate has been cut to 53-47 with the Democratic special election capture of the Oregon seat vacated by Bob Packwood, who resigned last fall following charges of ethical violations and sexual misconduct. As the state conducted a unique three-week-long vote-by-mail election, Democratic Congressman Ron Wyden becomes the first Democratic senator in Oregon in 34 years, narrowly defeating State Senate President Gordon Smith 48-47 percent in a six-way race. Wyden will serve the remaining three years of Packwood's term. Oregon has a history in state-wide races of supporting moderate-to-liberal candidates regardless of party affiliation. "This was a race about Oregon values," Wyden said. "But I do think it has national implications. For example, we have worked on a bipartisan basis for our clean air and clean water laws. This Congress is trying to roll them back and Oregonians don't like it." According to the New York Times, the race was a "trial run" for the November congressional races, in which Wyden received campaign support from President Clinton and Smith lost votes in Republican districts where the issues were the environment, abortion and Medicare for the elderly. Opinion polls also showed that Wyden was helped among the undecided voters when he disavowed the use of negative advertising. Democratic Party observer Terry Michaels noted that it would be wrong to conclude that Wyden's victory is "a stamp of approval for programmatic liberalism" or "the end of the Gingrich revolution." He added, however, "that battle is yet to come this fall." Said Oregon radio commentator Russell Sadler: "It is a wake-up call for the Oregon Republican Party, which has been seized by its Christian wing and has become increasingly isolated over on the right. It is a message that if they continue nominating these more conservative candidates, it's going to elect Democrats to statewide office." But noting that Smith "came within a hair's breadth of victory," Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour said the election results "make clear that Bill Clinton will not be able to take any state for granted in November." State officials were pleased that the mail vote produced a record turnout of better than 65 percent of registered voters and noted that the Oregon presidential primary in March also will be conducted by mail. --------------- --------------- PROPOSED PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE DATES ANNOUNCED The nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates has proposed the following agenda: 1. presidential, Wednesday, September 25, St. Louis, Missouri 2. vice presidential, Wednesday, October 2, Hartford, Connecticut 3. presidential, Wednesday, October 9, St. Petersburg, Florida 4. presidential, Wednesday, October 16, San Diego, California The dates and locations will not be final until they are approved later in the year by the eventual nominees of the two parties. The commission proposed that each nationally televised debate be 90 minutes in length, cover both foreign and domestic issues, and have a single moderator without a panel of questioners. --------------- --------------- RETIRING MEMBER OF CONGRESS Charlie Rose, North Carolina Democrat, became the 38th member of Congress to announce his retirement. The 12-term congressman is a member of the Agriculture Committee and a champion of tobacco farmers. --------------- --------------- DEMOCRATIC CALENDAR Subject to change, following is the unofficial calendar for Democratic primaries and caucuses, during which nominating convention delegates will be selected. The delegates will have 4,290 votes at the Democratic convention, some of which will be fractional votes. A candidate needs 2,146 votes to ensure the party's nomination. Date State Type Democratic Delegates Feb 12 Iowa Caucus 56 Feb 20 New Hampshire Primary 26 Feb 24 Delaware Primary 21 Mar 5 Colorado Primary 58 Connecticut Primary 65 Georgia Primary 91 Idaho Caucus 24 Maine Primary 32 Maryland Primary 85 Massachusetts Primary 114 Minnesota Caucus 92 Rhode Island Primary 31 South Carolina Caucus 52 Vermont Primary 22 Washington Caucus 91 American Samoa Caucus 6 Mar 7 Missouri Caucus 93 New York Primary 288 Mar 9 Alaska Caucus 19 Arizona Caucus 52 South Dakota Caucus 23 Democrats Abroad Caucus 9 Mar 10 Nevada Caucus 27 Puerto Rico Primary 58 Mar 12 Florida Primary 177 Hawaii Caucus 30 Louisiana Primary 76 Mississippi Primary 49 Oklahoma Primary 53 Oregon Primary 56 Tennessee Primary 83 Texas Primary 231 Mar 16 Michigan Caucus 158 Mar 19 Illinois Primary 194 Ohio Primary 171 Wisconsin Primary 93 Mar 23 Wyoming Caucus 19 Mar 25 Utah Caucus 30 Mar 26 California Primary 423 Mar 29 North Dakota Caucus 22 Mar 30 U.S. Virgin Islands Caucus 4 April 2 Kansas Primary 41 April 15 Virginia Caucus 96 April 23 Pennsylvania Primary 195 May 4 Guam Caucus 6 May 7 District of Columbia Primary 38 Indiana Primary 89 North Carolina Primary 98 May 14 Nebraska Primary 33 West Virginia Primary 42 May 21 Arkansas Primary 48 May 28 Kentucky Primary 61 June 4 Alabama Primary 66 Montana Primary 25 New Jersey Primary 120 New Mexico Primary 34 --------------- --------------- SECRET BALLOT INTRODUCED TO THE UNITED STATES 1888 On February 2, 1888, Louisville, Kentucky introduced the secret ballot to elections in the United States. The secret ballot, marked in the privacy of a booth, was a major change in the tradition of voting in the view of others. The old way of voting, where others could see how individuals cast their ballots, had occasionally lent itself to intimidation and even violence. The Louisville experiment in democracy was called "kangaroo voting" because it had been tried first in Australia. Historians say the secret ballot created great civic pride and excitement in Louisville during the election campaign and that voter turn-out on February 2, 1888 was higher than ever before. The use of the secret ballot quickly spread to other U.S. cities and states. South Carolina was the last state to officially adopt the secret ballot in 1950. ---------------- ---------------- FREE OFFER FROM PUBLISHER "CLIP" NEWS SERVICE INEWS DAILY IS NOW AVAILABLE THROUGH E-MAIL FREE TRIAL LOW COST ROYALTY FREE REPRODUCTION RIGHTS AVAILABLE International News E-Wire Service (INEWS) is an English language daily, covering news of the world. INEWS provides up-to-date and accurate world news. It also includes many features and interviews covering such topics as current events, politics, economics, science, medicine, history, technology, agriculture, religion, and music. Low cost republication rights are available allowing articles to be used on BBSs, in newsletters, advertising, LANs, weeklies, community newspapers, school newspapers, brochures, media kits, presentations, church bulletins, and more. Every day, INEWS gathers reports filed by correspondents stationed at 26 news bureaus throughout the world. 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